非绝热物理过程对北京暴雨数值预报不确定性影响   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

陈静  矫梅燕  龚建东  李川 《应用气象学报》2006,17(Z1):18-27

选取了2001年8月发生于北京市的具有不同大尺度环流强迫特征的两次强降水过程,利用MM5模式和国家气象中心的T213预报资料,分析了模式非绝热物理过程对北京市暴雨数值预报的影响特征和不确定性,探讨了解决暴雨预报不确定性的集合预报方法,进行了多物理模式集合预报试验。试验结果表明:模式非绝热物理参数化方案对精细化预报结果有明显影响,包括局地降水强度、空间分布型态、时间演变特征等;在高分辨率模式中,采用积云对流参数化方案后,会出现更多的小量级降水预报,且不论是大尺度强迫较强的暴雨,还是大尺度强迫较弱的暴雨,对流参数化方案都是造成降水预报不确定性的重要因素。多物理集合预报的初步试验结果表明,高分辨率集合预报可提供有价值的预报信息,是解决灾害性天气预报不确定性的一种有效的技术方法,但就目前的模式水平而言,可重点发展降水集合预报,特别是强降水集合预报系统,以反映模式在降水预报中存在的不确定性。  相似文献   

黄淮西部地貌过渡区深对流云的时空特征及其天气意义     

苏爱芳  银燕  吕晓娜  郑永光 《气象学报》2013,71(3):383-396

中国黄淮西部地貌过渡带(30°-38°N,109°-118°E,山区和平原过渡带)地形复杂,每年夏季强对流天气频繁发生.为了深入了解该地区的对流发展和分布特征,用1996-2010年5-8月静止卫星多通道资料及河南省地面观测的对流天气(雷暴、冰雹、短时强降水)资料,对该地区深对流活动的时空分布及天气意义进行了统计和对比研究.结果显示:黄淮西部地貌过渡带及其附近深对流活动的时空分布不仅与气候带关系密切,而且,明显受地形和天气系统影响.淮河流域是深对流活动高发区,豫北和豫西山区是深对流活动次高发区.豫北和豫西山区的深对流主要产生雷暴和冰雹,而淮河流域、南阳盆地等地势较低地区的深对流活动则较多地与雷暴和短时强降水有关.深对流活动随夏季风北进和副热带高压的北抬而具有显着的月际、日际变化及明显的阶段性特征.不同月份的深对流活动日变化特征显着不同,表现出两种性质的对流活动,一种为持续时间较短的热对流,一种为大尺度天气系统控制的持续性对流.豫北深对流活动日变化主要为单峰型,且具有自西北向东南方向传播的特征;豫南深对流活动日变化表现为双峰结构.  相似文献   

Socio-economic,operational and technical characterisation of the harvesting of gooseneck barnacle (Pollicipes pollicipes) in SW Portugal: Insights towards fishery co-management     

《Marine Policy》2017

The present study characterised the socio-economic, operational and technical aspects of harvesting the gooseneck barnacle (Pollicipes pollicipes) along the southwestern coast of Portugal. For this purpose, face-to-face interviews were conducted with commercial harvesters of the two most representative fishery associations (covering 51% licensed harvesters) in the area of the Parque Natural do Sudoeste Alentejano e Costa Vicentina. Based on traditional ecological knowledge, this study confirmed the local importance, ancestral character and family traditions of this activity, which constitutes the exclusive occupation of nearly half of the interviewed harvesters and an important source for household incomes. In addition, data was also gathered on preferential fishing zones, harvesting effort and duration, daily catches and selling prices. The main concerns, problems and difficulties experienced in this activity relate to the excessive number of recreational harvesters, creating problems at the levels of exploitation, commercialisation, management and inspection. The study further confirms the rising interest and involvement of the commercial harvesters in enhancing the competences of the local fishery associations. In particular, local harvesters want to encourage the development of a co-management system comprising spatial-temporal measures to avoid conflicts of use over space and resources, as well as innovative marketing strategies to improve the recognition, value and traceability of the shellfish. Overall, the information gathered is most valuable for adopting an alternative approach based on the cooperation and co-responsibility at local and regional levels, involving the stakeholders in the proposal of management measures adapted to the specificities of this area, activity and resource.  相似文献   

2004—2008年辽宁酸雨时空分布特征研究   总被引：6，自引：1，他引：5       下载免费PDF全文

洪也  董德文  马雁军  周德平  刘宁微  张云海  王扬锋 《气象与环境学报》2009,25(2):28-32

根据2004-2008年辽宁22个酸雨监测站的统计资料,对近年辽宁酸雨的时空分布特征进行分析和探讨。结果表明：2004—2008年,pH年平均值范围为5.49—6.62,呈逐年降低、酸雨强度逐年增强的趋势;酸雨主要发生在大连、本溪县和丹东及兴城地区,其中大连酸度最强;建平县最弱;辽宁酸雨有明显的季节变化,pH值以夏季酸度为最强,春季为最弱,酸雨出现频率以秋季为最高,春季为最低。  相似文献